Strategy Leaderboard

Every strategy we have ever measured — ranked in one tournament, including the dead ones, with their causes of death. ALIVE is a screen, not a verdict: it means a strategy beat a random-entry null matched to its own behavior (≥ 0.95 percentile, ≥ 30 trades). That filter runs on hundreds of cells, so a handful pass by chance and a grid can never certify its own winners. The far higher CONFIRMED bar is reserved for the few edges that survived a pre-registered test beyond the grid — independent confirmation or book gates (deflated Sharpe / PBO / correlation). Failures are diagnosed (signal / costs / fills) and rescued where execution can fix them — never hand-waved. Every row carries its exact parameters.

CONFIRMED is a far higher bar than ALIVE. ALIVE means a strategy beat its OWN random null — a screen run on hundreds of cells, so ~5% pass by luck and a grid cannot certify its own winners (MCC1, 2026-06-15: 0 of 365 cells survive family-wise correction; the ~365 cells are only ~39 independent bets). CONFIRMED is reserved for edges that survived a PRE-REGISTERED test beyond the grid and so do not pay that multiple-comparison tax — e.g. a circular-shift null + book gates (deflated Sharpe / PBO / correlation), or independent cross-symbol confirmation.

ALIVE — passed the screen (beat their matched random null)

Candidates, not promises. At a 95% bar across hundreds of cells, some survivors are expected by chance, and a grid cannot certify its own winners — family-wise correction confirms 0 of 365 cells (the ~365 cells are only ~39 independent bets). So ALIVE is a screen; edges are credited only with a CONFIRMED tag — pre-registered confirmation beyond the grid — and held in a correlation-managed book.'beats random' = the share of 400 random strategies — matched to this strategy's own trade count, holding period and long/short mix — that it outperformed. 100% = better than all of them; 50% = indistinguishable from luck; near 0% = reliably WRONG (which is information too).

WATCH — one gate short

Positive but below the random-null bar, or insufficient sample. Includes the 50-day trend regimes: proven de-risking in dollars, timing not yet proven beyond drift.

… and 197 more WATCH rows in the full records.

DEAD — with causes, kept forever

The part most services hide. A dead strategy stays on the board with its cause so it is never silently re-sold — to you, or to ourselves.

UNGATED — measured, not yet judged

68 historical measurements whose validation gates have not run. The board records; it does not decree.